Lima, Peru | Saturday 21 November 2009 17:27 | | |
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The surprise result of Ecuador's first-round presidential election on 15 October 2006 means that a pro-United States multi-millionaire capitalist will compete in the run-off with his political opposite - a radical nationalist economist who claims to have a close friendship with Venezuela's Hugo Chávez.
The banana magnate Álvaro Noboa (of the Partido Renovador Institucional de Acción Nacional [Prian] party) confounded the slow start to his campaign and poor showing in many opinion polls, to emerge as - at least after the official counting of 40% of the ballot-boxes - the marginal winner of the first-round election, with 25.2% of votes. Former finance minister Rafael Correa (of the Alianza País [AP]), who had led many polls for the last weeks of the campaign, was a close second, on 25.03%.
On July 28, 2006, Alan García Pérez, leader of the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (APRA), assumed the presidency of Peru for the second time. The sight of the now middle-aged politician wearing the presidential sash fills many Peruvians with a weird sense of déjà vu. Having decided to give him a second chance, voters now wonder whether he has changed.
García is the kind of politician who, as one wag put it, needs to be the bride in every wedding, the corpse in every funeral. He must control the need to eclipse everyone around him if he wants to govern effectively.
Populist nationalism emanating from Venezuela seeks to counter U.S. influence in Latin America, while Chinese deal-making is undermining the region’s slow evolution towards market-based economies. At the same time, congressional opponents of the Bush Administration are eager to block trade agreements to hand the President an election-year defeat. But failure to advance U.S.-Latin American trade relations would be an incredible blunder that jeopardizes one of America’s best interests: preserving peace and safety at home. Worse, it would drive allies into the hands of adversaries anxious to build a new order of authoritarian governments and aid networks based on the models of Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez and Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. In contrast, approving the U.S.-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA) would mean big business for American and Peruvian enterprises and could dispel perceptions of U.S. withdrawal from the region and counteract growing anti-American sentiment.
The knife-edge - and still contested - win for the conservative Partido de Acción Nacional candidate, Felipe Calderón, in the Mexican elections on 2 July 2006 is yet another sign that two political spheres exist in Latin America. In Mexico, Central America and Colombia, Washington's hegemony remains strong and the region's politics align accordingly. Meanwhile, in South America increasing autonomy is leading to the formation of a political community based loosely around a Brazilian-Argentinean axis.
Hernando de Soto advises governments who want to get a clearer picture on the economic potential of their own countries. To achieve that he and is co-workers use their experience gathered in Peru in the 80s. Back then the Institute for Liberty and Democracy (ILD) found out that nine out of ten small businesses weren’t registered; 85 percent of all taxis and buses were driven without a license, six out of ten shops were operated unofficially. And these businessmen also informally created the greater majority of real estate and companies in this country – without ever being annotated in a cadastral or trade register. Officially they owned nothing. In reality they possessed great values.
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