Peru exit polls: Humala party to win most seats in Congress

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LivinginPeru.com

peru congress
Today’s elections will decide the 130 seats of Peru’s congress to be filled on July 28.

Exit polls in Peru’s elections show political parties led by Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori winning the most seats in Peru’s Congress.

Of the 130 seats to be filled on July 28, Gana Perú, the party led by Ollanta Humala, will get 39 seats, according to exit polls by CPI. Fuerza 2011, led by Keiko Fujimori, will get 31 seats.

The rest of CPI’s exit polls are as follows:

• Perú Posible (Alejandro Toledo’s party): 23 seats
• Alianza por el Gran Cambio (Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s party): 16 seats
• Solidaridad Nacional (Luis Castañeda’s party): 15 seats
• Apra (Peru’s oldest political party): 6 seats

How to rule without a majority

Regardless who wins the run-off on June 5, both Ollanta Humala and Keiko Fujimori’s parties could face a gridlock in a divided Congress.

Looking at the prospect of an Humala administration, the political scientist Jorge Morel said that without an alliance, “it will be very difficult for Humala to govern.”

“One scenario is that Ollanta Humala pacts with Perú Posible,” Morel, a researcher at Instituto de Estudios Peruanos, told LivinginPeru.com. “This would permit Humala to govern without problems.”

The other possible scenario is that Humala or Fuijimori, when in power, use informal alliances, made possible especially given the weakness of Peru’s political parties.

Morel points to precedents of informal alliances in previous parliaments. “Informal alliances — that is, between individuals — have been a constant in Peruvian politics since the ’90s and was the case in the 2006 elections: [Alan] García didn’t have a mayority but governed well in parliament these five years. What can happen with Humala, but even more so with Fujimori, is that upon being president, they go for these types of ties in Congress,” Morel explained. 

See television coverage of the exit polls analysis for Congress:

Note: This article has been edited after its April 10 publication to further expand the explanation of informal alliances in Peru’s Congress.

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