Lima, Peru | Sunday 20 July 2008 16:08 | |
Temperatures have begun to drop dramatically in Peru's highland regions, reported SENAMHI, the country's weather service.# taylor barela says :
19 May, 2008 [ 22:04 ]
sad!!
# CapitanDan says :
19 May, 2008 [ 22:36 ]
I concur, very sad indeed.
# god says :
19 May, 2008 [ 23:05 ]
This comment was deleted
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# John Berbatis says :
21 May, 2008 [ 22:28 ]
Eco collapse-seismic, Pres. Clinton responds.
College Students Address Global Issues
From: The Clinton Foundation (enews@clintonfoundation.org)
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Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2008 1:26:46 AM
Reply-to: enews@clintonfoundation.org
To: John Berbatis (johnberbatisau@hotmail.com)
Estimating Exponentials
by Bob Powell, 5/29/07
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An article, Australian Researcher warns about Mass Human Extinction from Global Environmental Collapse by John Berbatis made me think, "Gee. Maybe things are worse than even I thought."
He writes: "Judging by the current extremes of global weather conditions and the recent increase in worldwide seismic activity, I believe humanity will face extinction before the end of 2008."
2008 !!! Holy Cow. And here I've been worried about the coming economic collapse at about that time.
Alarmist? Maybe. Maybe not. That's next year. Maybe he's wrong and it's at least 10 or 20 years away. Whew! That would be a relief.
But really. Exponential increases do quickly get out of hand and humans are really, really terrible at recognizing how quickly. How terrible? This graph shows how bad we are at it based on experiments with real human beings.
Estimating Exponential Growth. From The Logic of Failure, Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations by Dietrich Dorner, 1996, that I used in my Systems Thinking and Problem Solving class at Colorado Tech (in the slides for the second class).
Link to Systems Thinking and Problem Solving class.
Beyond this, we're terrible at understanding the dynamics of stocks and flows as described at Global Warming: An Inconvenient-to-Understand Truth and Sterman's paper to which there is a link, also based on experiments with human beings, students from MIT and Harvard.
So that's two reasons why the seriousness of climate change is so easy to obfuscate, which I view as a crime of planetary proportions considering the number of people who will die unless the human race takes immediate action.
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URL: http://www.exponentialimprovement.com/cms/estexp.shtml
In the past ten years there has been an exponential melting of the ice sheets and a noticeable disintegration of the ice shelves, owing to 'global warming'.
The loss of mass from the underlying Tectonics Plates causes them to ascend (iso-static rebound), and this results in an increase in the intensification and frequency of global seismological activity. The seismic data of the past ten years confirm this conjecture. Furthermore, the ice shelves impede the flow of glaciers and ice sheets into to the oceans; and when the 'polar regions' are subjected to unprecedented seismic upheavals, these events will then cause the ice sheets and glaciers to be dislodged en masse into the ocean!
This occurrence will then instantly destabilize the earth's surface weight distribution (isostasy), and so precipitate a 'crust displacement' (Mag. 12). i.e., axis change! The previous subterranean extraction of fossil fuels will greatly exacerbate this impending Apocalypse.
Currently, the excessive amount of carbon and methane gasses in the atmosphere is causing catastrophic weather conditions, globally - and this situation will rapidly deteriorate... 'a climate runaway!'
The global environmental and geo-political situations are now coalescing into a 'critical mass'; so I believe humanity can expect a catastrophe of worldwide proportions within this year!
In 1998, I submitted my dissertation on the above matter to various eminent institutions and individuals, to which I received positive responses from PM's Tony Blair, Helen Clark (NZ) & Lee Kwain Yew (Singapore) as well as the UN's - Dr Mary Robinson, Hon. Justice Michael Kirby AC CMG of the High Court of Australia, Premier P. Beattie (Queensland, Au) and Chief Justices of Canada, Norway, Taiwan, Mexico and Netherlands etc,.
Reality rules this universe! ... not unproductive discussion & debate?
From: disasterdiplomacy@hotmail.com
To: johnberbatisau@hotmail.com
Subject: RE: Global environment collapse -how+why(seismic)
Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2007 13:32:39 +0000
Dear John,
Thank you kindly for your email and for the information. Yes, there is a reasonable amount of credible scientific literature on the topic of linkages between (i) weather and climate and (ii) tectonic events. The linkages are even stronger when we consider disaster events, not just the environmental changes. It is good to hear about your contribution to this body of research and I hope that you find opportunities to continue such endeavours.
I would be cautious about promoting endorsements of science from lawyers, such as the politicians and judges whom you mentioned, because their values and training are not always the most appropriate for judging scientific merit. Some are able to straddle more than one field and make important contributions in several areas, but that does not apply to them all. Mary Robinson left UNHCR in 2002.
Reality rules this universe! ... not unproductive discussion & debate?
As is clear from my work, including on the disaster diplomacy website, I agree with this sentiment.
Ilan
From: "Ackerley, Beth" To: "John Berbatis" Subject: Tsunami SMS Warnings Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2007 11:50:53 +1000 Mr John Berbatis Email address: johnberbatisau@hotmail.com Dear Mr Berbatis The Premier, Paul Lennon MHA, has asked me to acknowledge and thank you for your email of 29 March 2007 in relation to Tsunami SMS warning. Yours sincerely Beth Ackerley Executive Officer Premier's Office Telephone: 6233 6068 Fax: 6234 1572 Email: Beth.Ackerley@dpac.tas.gov.au From : thepremier Sent : Tuesday, 13 March 2007 2:00:16 PM To : Subject : AA07/06566 - Global warming From : thepremier Sent : Tuesday, 13 March 2007 2:00:16 PM To : johnberbatisau@hotmail.com Subject : AA07/06566 - Global warming Dear Mr Berbatis The Premier has received your recent email concerning global warming. Your views have been noted and Mr Iemma the appreciates reasons which prompted you to write to him on this occasion. You may be sure that your comments will receive close consideration. Yours sincerely Jocelyn Mouawad Assistant Private Secretary From: WA-Government Sent: Tuesday, 10 April 2007 4:13:08 PM To : "john berbatis" Subject : RE: SMS alerts for tsunami warning. | | | Drafts | Inbox Dear Mr Berbatis We refer to your recent email regarding SMS alerts for tsunami warnings. Your suggestion has been noted and forwarded to the Hon John Kobelke, Minister for Police and Emergency Services for consideration. Regards WA Govt >>> "john berbatis" 5/04/07 9:30 am >>> Dear Premier Alan Carpenter, In last month, there has been a heightened level of global seismological activity, especially in the Pacific basin 'ring of fire'; and it appears to be substantially escalating. I have recommended by email - to all State Premiers, PM Howard and the Chief Minister Clare Martin, that they consider the immediate establishing of a SMS alert for a tsunami threat, so as to facilitate the most effective means of the warning the public. Kind regards, John Berbatis 4/21 Cornelian St Scarborough 6019 Perth WA April 5th, 2007 Tel: 0422621382 NB. Premier Peter Beattie sent me a positive response by letter, on March 26th 2007 - pertaining to above matter.
FiFrom : Sent : Wednesday, 25 April 2007 8:14:56 AM To : johnberbatisau@hotmail.com Subject : | | | Drafts | Inbox We have received your e-mail.
Best Regard,
E-mail Team
Cabinet Secretariate Government of Japan
Dear Editor, Syllogisms that I submitted in 1998, which were recognized by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights - Dr Mary Robinson and the Hon. Justice Michael D. Kirby AC CMG of the High Court of Australia. Time must exist before matter can be created, and only an animate entity can conceive of space-time. Time must be a stabilized and uniform condition before matter can form, thus Monotheism is a Truth. The Universe consists of space-time; which is functionally active and growing but remains stable. These combined characteristics are indicative of an animate entity only, thus Pantheism is a fact. Consequently, all mortals' behaviour and attitudes become conspicuous by our Creator. Reality is the dream of a Universal sentient being; sensations of all mortals are merely light flashes within elongated fractal crystals, flowing in a white mist which is time itself; ensconced within a beige coloured and velvet textured Pearl, that is, a holographic Universe. If all electrical particles were in different time zones - matter would not form, thus time is a controlled electromagnetic radiation (energy) E = mc2. To be perfect - one must know the past, present and future, there is only one, the one that created Time. John Berbatis Perth, Australia March 26th, 2007 Tel: +61 0422621382 Email: johnberbatisau@hotmail.com --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Global Warming, Volcanic Eruptions
A Warmer World Could Be A More Explosive One
By Joshua Hill Friday, April 4, 2008Much of the focus on global warming is always directed towards the obvious; food, water levels, animals. What makes the whole subject even more interesting though is the unexpected consequences of a warming planet. And if new research is to be believed, global warming may have an impact on volcanic eruptions.
According to Carolina Pagli of the University of Leeds, UK, and Freysteinn Sigmundsson of the University of Iceland, Vatnajökull – the largest ice cap in Iceland – is disappearing at a rate of 5 cubic kilometers per year. Together, the two have calculated the effects that this will have on the crust and magma underneath.
Naturally, when ice disappears, the added weight it forced upon the crust below it disappears as well. As a result, according to Pagli and Sigmundsson, this is increasing the rate at which the rocks under the ice sheet melt in to magma. The melt to magma rate was found to be 0.014 km3/yr, which equated to a century average of 1.4 cubic kilometres produced since 1890; a 10% increase on the background rate.
(I spoke to Carolina Pagli via email, and she said that “One should be careful with the wording, because it’s the ice melting that causes decompression at depth and thus the mantle melting.” So the stats above refer to the rate of magma production, not ice melting.)
Iceland is home to several active volcanoes that exist underneath the ice, including Gjàlp, home of the last big eruption in 1996, and 58 years earlier in 1938. But according to Pagli and Sigmundsson the extra magma produced over the past century and more could reduce that time down to a gap of 30 years between each eruption.
Vatnajökull is somewhat unique in terms of its location, and is not necessarily an indicator for the rest of the world. Vatnajökull sits atop a boundary between tectonic plates, and as a result allows the release in pressure to have a much greater effect deep within the mantle.
But the thinning of ice over volcanic areas will have another effect, one which is more widespread. As the amount of weight on top of the crust diminishes – or at the very least changes – subsequent geological stresses will also change and increase the chance of eruptions. “Under the ice’s weight, the crust bends and as you melt the ice the crust will bounce up again,” explains Bill McGuire of University College London in the UK, who was not involved in the study.
Pagli points to Antarctica’s Mount Erebus, the Aleutian Islands and other Alaskan volcanoes as locations which will be at risk of similar increased volcanic activity. She adds that the shifting stresses could even cause eruptions in unexpected places. “We think that during the Gjàlp eruption, magma reached the surface at an unusual location, mid-way between two volcanoes, because of these stress changes,” says Pagli.
McGuire, who was speaking to New Scientist regarding the new research, added that “It’s not just unloading the crust that triggers volcanic activity but loading as well.” He and his team believe that rising sea-levels – also caused by melting ice caps – will increase volcanic activity. “We are going to see a massive increase in volcanic activity globally,” he told New Scientist. “If we look back at previous warm periods that is what happened.”
# CapitanDan says :
21 May, 2008 [ 23:01 ]
My Friends what John is saying is that when the Ice Cap melts the reduced weight or lack of will cause an upheaval in the earths upper crust causing the end of the world. This is what he calls the Rebounding Theory. Hmm he claims the end of the world is this year 2008. He also uses a study by Caroline Pagli to support this doomsday forecast. If I remember my Geology course in College , The Great Lakes were formed when the Last Great Ice Age retreated. The world did not end and the lakes didn't pop up like pimples on an adolescent. If I could I would mortgage my boat to the hilt and bet that most of you will be here to greet the new year. As to the poor souls that are freezing I hope the government will send food , heating oil,gas and warm clothing. Chau
# John Berbatis says :
1 July, 2008 [ 05:46 ]
Please repost your comment John.Add your comment
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