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Peru | 7 August, 2006 [ 19:10 ]

'El Niño' phenomenon approaching Peru again?

Peruvian oceanic scientist Luis Icochea Salas from the University of La Molina announced that the phenomenon of "El Niño" is already beginning to develop on the other side of the Pacific but as of now does not present a threat to Peru.

Nevertheless, he added that the current of warm water temperatures is already advancing east but if and when it would arrive in Peru or the intensity level cannot be projected with certainty. The scientist calculated that an arrival of El Niño in Peru is probable in March 2007.

Icochea added that the climatic phenomenon is currently located 10,000 of kilometers away and its speed and trajectory is highly dependant on changing wind conditions.

Hugo Arevalo, president of the National "El Niño" Research Center explained that more accurate predictions can by made by September or October. By then atmospheric, oceanographic and meteorological indicators will give a much clearer picture. Arevalo also did not discard the possibility that a small version of El Niño could happen in Peruvian waters.

Ronald Woodman, president of Peru's Geophysical Institute believes that water temperatures will only be "minimally higher than normal, about one third of a degree, in relation to the Central Equatorial Pacific”.

The last El Niño occurrence in Peru dates back to 1998. Floods and droughts caused million dollar damages to houses, agricultural territories, fishing, in addition to environmental contamination resulting in various diseases. A version with a much smaller impact was registered in 2002.

One sign of a coming El Niño is a change in what fish can be found off the west coast of South America. For example cold water anchovies are being replaced by tropical species.

Peruvian fishermen are credited with recognizing and naming this climate phenomenon in the 19th century. They first noticed the annual southerly flow of warm equatorial waters around Christmas, giving it the name El Nino, Spanish for "the Christ Child."

- for more information read the following Peruvian case study by the Center for Capacity Building (CCB):

Impacts and Responses to the 1997-98 El Niño Event in Peru


tags : Peru health nature Pacific ocean ElNino meteorology science flooding drought

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