By Aldo Mariátegui for Correo
Translated and edited by Jorge Riveros-Cayo
|Humala is more "redder" than ever, despite he kisses rosaries now, says Mariátegui. (Photo: Diario 16)|
Now Humala is telling us that he has “moderated” his discourse just because he kisses rosaries with Cipriani and wants to “dialogue” with the Peruvian entrepreneurial class?
Could a “moderate” candidate have in its congressional list such Marxist-Leninist dinosaurs as Javier Diez Canseco, Manuel Dammert, Rosa Mávila and Nicolás Lynch? Humala has become more “redder” than ever before, mainly thanks to Nadine’s (his wife) influence. Only an idiot — well, you have to be one if you plan to vote for him — wouldn’t notice that Humala has taken off the red t-shirt and hidden Chávez (that lunatic that said yesterday "Capitalism may have ended life in Mars") because he knows that with that kind of speech he will not get anywhere.
Fidel Castro also came down from the Sierra Maestra with a religious card holding the image of the Virgin of Charity of El Cobre mining town, and Hugo Chávez acted like a sweet little kitten during his presidential campaign (see the video).
Humala keeps on promoting lefty ideas as if we were under Velasco’s regime, such as creating a “flagship airline.” It seems he has not heard the news that airlines such as Swissair, Alitalia, Braniff, Eastern, Lloyd Aéreo Boliviano, Aerolíneas Argentinas, Mexicana de Aviación and a thousand companies more all broke financially. Maybe he doesn’t know either that civil aviation is a very complicated business; tax payer’s money can’t be squandered. But I’m sure there will be brainless people that applaud these ideas.
The latest CPI poll shows that Humala hasn’t reached the second place – everything is in constant motion – and that there is a virtual tie between a descending Toledo and a slightly ascending Keiko. In the meantime Castañeda is rolling down the hill and PPK and Humala, are going up at different speeds.
This means, in the first league we have a tie, and in the second a triple tie. I have the intuition that for the next polls, Toledo could have lost his privileged lead and Castañeda will be overrun by PPK and/or Humala.
Regarding second rounds, CPI and Apoyo show very similar numbers in all possible options, except with Toledo-PPK: While Apoyo says Toledo can beat PPK 42-34 percent, according to CPI there could be a tie 40-40 percent. Both poll firms have very similar results, except when CPI siuates Keiko as first in Lima. Datum on the other hand, puts Humala second nationwide and gives PPK only 13 percent.
Where we can see some surprises is in the vote intention for Congress. Toledo’s congressional candidates lose the leadership falling from 27 to 18 percent, while Keiko’s candidates ascend from 19 to 26 percent. This mean that “Fujimoristas” could be the first majority (37 seats), followed by Toledo’s group (26), Humala’s (20), Castañeda’s (18), and PPK’s (15). The other unexpected revelation is that the Apra ruling party could get 10 percent of votes, which would mean 14 seats in Congress.