Two weeks before the runoff Alan Garcia is holding a strong lead over his rival Ollanta Humala, according to the latest survey by the University of Lima. The poll, conducted from 16.000 people in 244 districts in all of Peru, shows that Garcia would obtain 61,9% of electoral support compared to 38,1% for UPP candidate Humala. An advantage that, according to analysts, will be very difficult to revert.
Especially strong is Garcia’s support in the capital Lima which represents one third of the electoral population. The APRA candidate obtains a forceful 72% of the voters as opposed to 27,7% for his competitor.
Similarly, Garcia surpasses Humala in the Northern coastal area, traditionally an APRA bastion. There he
reaches 69,1% of endorsement as opposed to Humala’s 30,9%. The
aprista candidate also prevails in central Peru and in the northeast jungle areas.
In the south however, Ollanta Humala leads Garcia 57,2% to 42,8%. In the first election the UPP candidate
obtained an average of 45% in those regions of the south, and it was for that reason that Garcia assured hat he try to conquer the votes in these zones.
Although the Aprista candidate has a greater chance to win the election
on June 4, it is not neccessarily based on his virtues but because
he generates less distrust than Ollanta Humala. Consulted on the
weaknesses of each candidate, 36,8% of the people questioned believe
that Garcia “lies”, or they at least they identify him as a liar. Ollanta Humala on the other hand is considered “authoritarian”,
according to the 31,9% of the people consulted.
When asked about the virtues that corresponds to each candidate, 34,4% say that Alan Garcia is "well prepared", whereas 32,7% say they don’t know any virtues Humala can be indentified with.
The survey also reveals that for 41,1% Alan Garci’a
identifies more with the middle-class. 47,6%
of the population perceive that Ollanta Humala identifies more with
the lower classes.
Finally, 59,3% are in discord with the insults of Hugo Chavez towards Alan Garcia and
42,5% are in discord with the nationalization of petroleum and gas decreed by Bolivian president Evo Morales.