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Peru could see strong earthquake due to accumulated energy

Living in Peru
Israel Ruiz

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Prefabricated homes given to victims in Pisco after a magnitude-8 earthquake leveled a great deal of the city.

© ANDINA

133 earthquakes were registered in Peru throughout 2008, reported expert Hernando Tavera, explaining that this figure was less than the 191 earthquakes registered in 2007.

After reporting this data, the head of seismology for Peru's Geophysical Institute expressed his concern that accumulated energy in southern Peru and northern Chile could be released at any moment in the form of a much more destructive earthquake.

"It's difficult to predict the nature of seismic movement," said Tavera, explaining that the fact that there had been fewer earthquakes in 2008 did not mean a natural disaster would not take place in the region.

He affirmed that natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanoes were something Latin America had to deal with and be prepared for. "Prevention has a lot to do with educating (people). The media should remind the population that Peru is located in a highly seismic area."

Tavera explained that while Peru and Chile had to deal with earthquakes, Ecuador had to prepare for volcanic activity and Argentina and Bolivia had to manage their geological defects. The expert affirmed that the best way Peru could deal with its reality was to prepare for strong quakes.

According to Victor Aguilar, a scientist for the National University of Arequipa, the areas that were most at risk of being affected by this powerful release of energy were a 650-kilometer stretch in southern Peru and a 500-kilometer one in northern Chile.

"Peruvians quickly forget what has happened," said Tavera when asked about the earthquake that left almost half a million people homeless in 2007. He explained that little had been done to prepare for future earthquakes of the same magnitude.

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# 53north says :
4 January, 2009 [ 15:07 ]

Peru isn't the only place building seismic stress, but thankfully it is one of the few places where honesty and intelligence still show themselves in reporting and the sciences.

# Mike says :
5 January, 2009 [ 00:04 ]

Some of this article doesn't make a bit of sense - partly due to translation and, I would bet, partly due to a misquote from Tavera.

At any rate, I really agree that earthquake preparation is important; however, it is a little silly when people say it could happen "at any time."  There really aren't any ways to predict quakes - fewer quakes aren't necessarily an inidication.

In fact, at least 20 of those quakes from 2007 are related to the big one in August (the main quake and aftershocks) - maybe even more than that.

It would be more interesting to know if 2008 was significantly below the average for a year, not just one year.

# 53north says :
5 January, 2009 [ 08:48 ]

There are many ways of predicting an increased probability of quakes. When many of these methods red flag, it's time for disaster preparedness.
A dam collapsing on the North African Rift Fault would turn much of Cairo into a New Orleans/ Galveston/ Jakarta event. It pays to listen for warning creaking.

# Mike says :
5 January, 2009 [ 10:23 ]

There is absolutely no correlation between the number of earthquakes in a given political boundary and big earthquakes within that political boundary.

Now, there is a correlation when it comes to faults.  A fault, put simply, is  a place in the Earth's crust where two separate rock masses meet.  The two rock masses are moving in different directions, and the tension built up as they rub against each other is released as an earthquake.

Faults cross political boudaries.  I am sure there are faults in southern Peru that reach into Chile or Bolivia.

Basically, to tell if there is a possibility of a strong earthquake, one has to look at the history of a particular fault.  If this fault is known to have had regular strong earthquakes, then by analyzing the history of the fault, one can make general predictions as to how often these strong earthquakes occur.

You can't simply say that less earthquakes in Peru translates to a "big one" coming.  Particulary without data prior to 2007, and particularly without referring to a particular fault.

# *& says :
5 January, 2009 [ 14:13 ]

its good to be informed..

# 53north says :
7 January, 2009 [ 04:42 ]

=o)

# AjideGallina says :
7 January, 2009 [ 08:42 ]

Mike,

You are right, I found this article to be very bad science.

# Mike says :
7 January, 2009 [ 09:29 ]

It should be noted that Tavera is a very respected scientist - the problem is with the (original) article.

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