Just a few days away from the expected 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia and according to an analysis by El País, Peru has more chances to win the competition than the host country.
According to predictions made by this media, Peru occupies 13th place and the chances of the team advancing to the second round are of 50.5%.
“To reach the quarterfinals Peru only has a 21.5% chance, while their odds to reach the semifinals and final are 8.9% and 3.4%, respectively”, El Comercio said, citing information from El País.
Also, the Spanish newspaper gives Peru a 1.2% chance to take the victory in the final of Russia 2018 and lift the World Cup. As is to be expected, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Argentina, and Portugal are the favorites, in that order, to be champions.
In order to elaborate these forecasts, the media indicates that they use a statistical model fed with data of the teams and their players. They consider results and the chances of every one of the teams as well.
As for the players, El País uses their market value and their level in the clubs they play in. “In total, we use statistics of 32,000 matches and hundreds of teams”, they said, according to El Comercio.